Nearly six in ten Thai tourism operators say the kingdom is falling behind rivals such as Vietnam, as a university survey cuts the 2026 foreign arrivals forecast to 31.5 million.
Why Thai Tourism Operators Say the Country Is Losing Its Edge
Thailand’s tourism industry is losing ground to regional competitors, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported by The Nation on November 3. Of 368 operators polled nationwide, 59.1% said Thailand now lags rival destinations, even though 52.2% felt its competitiveness had improved compared with three years ago.
The UTCC now expects 31.5 million foreign arrivals in 2026, about 4.5% fewer than the nearly 33 million recorded in 2025 and below its earlier estimate of 32 million to 34 million. Arrivals in the first nine months were already down 3.8%.
UTCC president Thanavath Phonvichai said he still expects a recovery next year, but warned that reaching 34 million visitors is risky because Thailand no longer stands out against competitors as it once did.
Vietnam Wins Russian, Indian and Malaysian Travelers With Easier Visas and Flights
Vietnam’s gains are clearest among Russian visitors: arrivals there jumped 160% thanks to a 45-day visa policy and more direct flights, while Russian visits to Thailand were flat. Malaysian and Indian holidaymakers are also choosing Vietnam, and South Korean arrivals in Thailand fell 25.4% as fuel surcharges and a weak yen made Japan better value.
Visa Changes, Border Delays and Safety Fears Undermine Thailand’s Tourism Appeal
Operators blamed 48.1% of the decline on external factors such as war, but 25.3% cited domestic constraints including flights, visa rules, border checkpoints and safety. Malaysian arrivals fell 15.2% amid delays at the new Sadao checkpoint, while India’s visa allowance swung from 60 to 15 and then 30 days, triggering cancellations of about 20%. Chinese arrivals grew 15.2% from a low base, though scam-related safety worries still hold that market back.
Operators Urge More Flights and Stable Rules to Restore Thailand’s Market Share
Over half of operators want the government to add seats and charter flights, fix the Sadao checkpoint, keep visa policies consistent and crack down on grey money and nominee businesses. More than 60% believe Thailand will not regain its pre-COVID peak of 40 million visitors until 2031 or later. Wichian Kaewsombat of the Trade Strategy Institute warned that Thailand could lose these markets over time without more direct flights and better value.
Frequently Asked Questions
What share of Thai operators say Thailand is losing its edge?
59.1% of the 368 operators surveyed by the UTCC said Thailand trails its regional rivals.
How many foreign tourists will Thailand receive in 2026?
The UTCC forecasts 31.5 million, about 4.5% fewer than the nearly 33 million recorded in 2025.
Why are Russian tourists choosing Vietnam?
Vietnam’s 45-day visa policy and more direct flights lifted Russian arrivals there by 160%, while Thailand’s stayed flat.
Which domestic problems are hurting Thai tourism?
Inconsistent visa rules, delays at border checkpoints, too few flight seats and safety concerns linked to scams.
When could Thailand return to 40 million visitors?
More than 60% of surveyed operators believe it will take until 2031 or later.
Conclusion
Thailand still has strong tourism resources and services, but its own operators believe the country is slipping behind faster-moving rivals. A UTCC forecast of 31.5 million foreign arrivals in 2026, Vietnam’s surge in Russian visitors and falling numbers from Malaysia, India and South Korea all point in the same direction. Operators say much of the problem lies in areas Thailand can control: flight capacity, visa consistency, border efficiency and visitor safety. Their message to the government is clear: add seats, settle visa rules and restore confidence, or face a recovery that could stretch into the next decade.
Bibliography / Sources
- Ajanapanya, N. (2026, November 3). Thailand’s tourism sector loses competitive edge as regional rivals outpace growth [News article]. The Nation. https://www.nationthailand.com/news/tourism/40073060
- The Nation. (2026, November 3). Thailand’s tourism recovery falters as Asian rivals gain ground [News article]. https://www.nationthailand.com/news/tourism/40073067
- Thansettakij. (2026, November 3). ม.หอการค้าฯ หั่นเป้า นทท.ต่างชาติ เหลือ 31.5 ล้านคน จี้รัฐเพิ่มเที่ยวบินสู้เวียดนาม [UTCC cuts foreign tourist forecast to 31.5 million, urges more flights to compete with Vietnam; News article in Thai]. https://www.thansettakij.com/economy/672871